Some very agitated friends just arrived in the office, the situation by most reports seems to be spiraling out of control.
All we have at this stage is rumours however we are currently in a think tank with a number of high end Georgian academics who have the connections to confirm most of them.
We have fairly well confirmed reports that the Russians now have control of Gori. Something that the Russians are denying but by this point with troops in Senaki there is little reason for them not to take it and little in the way of resistance to stop them.
What will worry most of you is that the embassies appear to be evacuating, I have yet to hear from ours (I'm British by the way, or English as my Scottish friend would say) but the last few days have no faith in them.
Georgian media is reporting that Russian forces have taken over the main highway leading from West to East Georgia and the troops are advancing.
They are rumours unconfirmed by our sources of landings in Batumi, where a large proportion of the Georgian reserve is based.
Georgian troops are also rumoured to be retreating to Tbilisi, this is also unconfirmed as yet.
Monday, August 11, 2008
Russian Troops in Senaki
You go away for coffee and a bite to eat and next thing you know the Russians are deep in to Georgia proper and have captured one of Georgia's main military bases.
This has come as a shock to most people here as Gori was widely believed to be the target of a Russian advance.
It's got a lot of people here very nervous as it represents a serious new phase of the conflict with military advances being made over land on Georgian soil.
Information is still limited, we're doing our best to find out what's going on.
I'll make a new post within the next few hours or so to bring you all up to speed and will try to post any major breaking news where possible.
This has come as a shock to most people here as Gori was widely believed to be the target of a Russian advance.
It's got a lot of people here very nervous as it represents a serious new phase of the conflict with military advances being made over land on Georgian soil.
Information is still limited, we're doing our best to find out what's going on.
I'll make a new post within the next few hours or so to bring you all up to speed and will try to post any major breaking news where possible.
Quick Airport Update:
Still hearing stuff on the news about a strike on (or very near) the civilian airport in Tbilisi. There could perhaps be some truth in it after all. If so it was a very risky move by the Russians.
What is also possible is that I've heard the radar that was knocked out this morning serves the airport.
I am told this will not prevent flights too and from the airport but will in all likelihood reduce the number of flights that can take off and land at once significantly, perhaps even to one.
It is not completely impossible that the attack on the radar and the airport have become conflated.
Neither is it impossible that it was hit, I'll do some more digging around tonight.
Shameless Self Promotion
Too busy to spend too much time promoting the blog myself but it'd be nice if you all could get the word out ;-)
What is also possible is that I've heard the radar that was knocked out this morning serves the airport.
I am told this will not prevent flights too and from the airport but will in all likelihood reduce the number of flights that can take off and land at once significantly, perhaps even to one.
It is not completely impossible that the attack on the radar and the airport have become conflated.
Neither is it impossible that it was hit, I'll do some more digging around tonight.
Shameless Self Promotion
Too busy to spend too much time promoting the blog myself but it'd be nice if you all could get the word out ;-)
Conversations with Georgians
Work has of course been busy today, we've been inundated with emails from concerned donors and former partners. We spent this morning trying to draft a short report outlining the current situation for the country and for the organisation. I doubt it will be the last we make this week.
Through conversations with my boss I've managed to learn a bit more about the current situation in the cities in which we have offices, many of which were bombed (the cities not the offices).
Having spent the whole weekend in Tbilisi, mostly infront of computers or hanging around with expats this has been very interesting information for me as it's sometimes hard to get reliable information from outside of the city.
Zugdidi
In Zugdidi Russian troops patrol the streets. The city is currently completely deserted after the evacuation, a number of people are known to have stayed, some of our staff members for instance are preparing to help coordinate relief efforts.
Residents have mostly fled to villages in the Samegrelo region unable to flee to the relative saftey of Tbilisi due to the precarious situation in Gori endangering routes across the country.
There are reports of supply shortages and rising commodity costs in the villages, many food shops are closed, the price of petrol has soared and phone credit is changing hands at over three times its value.
Gori
The situation in Gori is grave, a large number of high rise flats have been damaged or destroyed, killing many civilians. The city has no electricity and communication is extremely difficult after the destruction of commercial communication masts by Russian bombers.
Rumours, mentioned in this morning's post and stoked by Saakashvili himself are still flying that Gori is being approached by Russian tanks.
If you read the article I linked to there you get a good idea that Russians in Gori is not an immediate threat. You also get a good picture of the confused double-speak Misha has collapsed into. I'm not going to go into Misha's future right now though.
The vast majority of Gori's population have fled to Tbilisi which is considered the safest place to be by most Georgians at the moment. It is not yet clear where the refugees are being hosted. Appeals have been made on television for Tbilisi locals to host families but, World Vision is reporting many have gone an IDP centre still existing after the last war.
My organisation has representatives within a large number of collective centres in Tbilisi, we hope to have up to date information on this issue after today.
Poti
There is less information on Poti. Russian airstrikes there over the weekend seem not to have destroyed the harbour. Evacuation proceedures began yesterday according to a source who used to work for the organisation. Those who remain are said to be in a state of panic.
Given that the harbour is still functioning I would imagine that Poti is not unlikely to be the unfortunate recipient of further Russian bombing raids, particularly given the presence of Russia's Black Sea fleet off the Georgian coast.
There were a large number of tourists in Poti when the bombs fell, the Black Sea is popular with both Georgian and foreign tourists. There have been no reports of any injuries to foreign tourists.
Senaki
The town that appears to be worst affected is Senaki, unfortunately it is also the town we know least about as our offices in Senaki were closed a while ago.
Located next to Georgia's newest most modern base it's a small town and bombs hit it in the centre, the railway station, main market, theatre and Bank of Georgia offices were all damaged.
Most importantly for my organisation an IDP collective centre was also hit. Being bombed out of the home you were forced into.. absolutely disgusting.
From what we have heard the base is still functional.
Vindicating my statements to reasure you, most Georgians believe that the capital is the safest place to be despite the recent bombing raids on targets just outside the city.
Secondhand Reports from Within the Georgian Army
A friend at work has friends who participated in the Georgian offensive to take South Ossetia. He was angry at government distortion regarding casualty figures and spoke of what friends had said regarding some confusing orders given on the battlefield.
Firstly, I would add the warning that it is very dangerous to deal with numbers at the moment. I'm positive both sides have been pulling straight out of the air numbers of casualties, injuries, people displaced, planes shot down and bombs dropped.
A soldier might however have a reasonable idea of how many lives were lost on his own side. My friend's, friend (not the best name for a source I know) estimates that up to 2,000 Georgian troops died the assault on Tskinvali between Friday and Saturday.
If Misha's estimates of 90% civilian casualties on the Georgian side are correct we're looking at 20,000 dead Georgians.. I don't think we're quite there yet.
As an aside and speaking of dodgy numbers Interfax is reporting that 2,000 foreigners are leaving Tbilisi. I have no idea where they got that number from, whilst I don't know how many of us expats have left (I'll look into it for you all though) it's a vast over estimate for sure.
Anyway another interesting thing that came out of my chat with my collegue was that according to his friend troops had reached the tunnel that links South Ossetia with North Ossetia (through which Russian troops made their counter-attack) twice. Both times troops were ordered by Georgian Generals to fall back without making the tunnel unpassable.
This baffled the troops, my friend and myself. Make of it what you will. I'd be interested to hear your theories.
Winston and Temur
Still no real news but a friend in Holland sent me a link to an article in Le Monde [In French] that covers their capture.
As far as we know this is the first report to appear in Western media on the situation. Please continue to get it try and get the matter publicised.
I find the overall lack of press coverage on the issue baffling. Not even Winston and Temur's own paper The Messenger (website, blog) are covering it (though I did recieve an email confirming their capture when I wrote to them).
So
Still more confusion, still more contradictory unconfirmable reports and at the time of writing still more fighting.
I will update you all again at some point this evening with a bit more from the agencies and a bit more from me.
Through conversations with my boss I've managed to learn a bit more about the current situation in the cities in which we have offices, many of which were bombed (the cities not the offices).
Having spent the whole weekend in Tbilisi, mostly infront of computers or hanging around with expats this has been very interesting information for me as it's sometimes hard to get reliable information from outside of the city.
Zugdidi
In Zugdidi Russian troops patrol the streets. The city is currently completely deserted after the evacuation, a number of people are known to have stayed, some of our staff members for instance are preparing to help coordinate relief efforts.
Residents have mostly fled to villages in the Samegrelo region unable to flee to the relative saftey of Tbilisi due to the precarious situation in Gori endangering routes across the country.
There are reports of supply shortages and rising commodity costs in the villages, many food shops are closed, the price of petrol has soared and phone credit is changing hands at over three times its value.
Gori
The situation in Gori is grave, a large number of high rise flats have been damaged or destroyed, killing many civilians. The city has no electricity and communication is extremely difficult after the destruction of commercial communication masts by Russian bombers.
Rumours, mentioned in this morning's post and stoked by Saakashvili himself are still flying that Gori is being approached by Russian tanks.
If you read the article I linked to there you get a good idea that Russians in Gori is not an immediate threat. You also get a good picture of the confused double-speak Misha has collapsed into. I'm not going to go into Misha's future right now though.
The vast majority of Gori's population have fled to Tbilisi which is considered the safest place to be by most Georgians at the moment. It is not yet clear where the refugees are being hosted. Appeals have been made on television for Tbilisi locals to host families but, World Vision is reporting many have gone an IDP centre still existing after the last war.
My organisation has representatives within a large number of collective centres in Tbilisi, we hope to have up to date information on this issue after today.
Poti
There is less information on Poti. Russian airstrikes there over the weekend seem not to have destroyed the harbour. Evacuation proceedures began yesterday according to a source who used to work for the organisation. Those who remain are said to be in a state of panic.
Given that the harbour is still functioning I would imagine that Poti is not unlikely to be the unfortunate recipient of further Russian bombing raids, particularly given the presence of Russia's Black Sea fleet off the Georgian coast.
There were a large number of tourists in Poti when the bombs fell, the Black Sea is popular with both Georgian and foreign tourists. There have been no reports of any injuries to foreign tourists.
Senaki
The town that appears to be worst affected is Senaki, unfortunately it is also the town we know least about as our offices in Senaki were closed a while ago.
Located next to Georgia's newest most modern base it's a small town and bombs hit it in the centre, the railway station, main market, theatre and Bank of Georgia offices were all damaged.
Most importantly for my organisation an IDP collective centre was also hit. Being bombed out of the home you were forced into.. absolutely disgusting.
From what we have heard the base is still functional.
Vindicating my statements to reasure you, most Georgians believe that the capital is the safest place to be despite the recent bombing raids on targets just outside the city.
Secondhand Reports from Within the Georgian Army
A friend at work has friends who participated in the Georgian offensive to take South Ossetia. He was angry at government distortion regarding casualty figures and spoke of what friends had said regarding some confusing orders given on the battlefield.
Firstly, I would add the warning that it is very dangerous to deal with numbers at the moment. I'm positive both sides have been pulling straight out of the air numbers of casualties, injuries, people displaced, planes shot down and bombs dropped.
A soldier might however have a reasonable idea of how many lives were lost on his own side. My friend's, friend (not the best name for a source I know) estimates that up to 2,000 Georgian troops died the assault on Tskinvali between Friday and Saturday.
If Misha's estimates of 90% civilian casualties on the Georgian side are correct we're looking at 20,000 dead Georgians.. I don't think we're quite there yet.
As an aside and speaking of dodgy numbers Interfax is reporting that 2,000 foreigners are leaving Tbilisi. I have no idea where they got that number from, whilst I don't know how many of us expats have left (I'll look into it for you all though) it's a vast over estimate for sure.
Anyway another interesting thing that came out of my chat with my collegue was that according to his friend troops had reached the tunnel that links South Ossetia with North Ossetia (through which Russian troops made their counter-attack) twice. Both times troops were ordered by Georgian Generals to fall back without making the tunnel unpassable.
This baffled the troops, my friend and myself. Make of it what you will. I'd be interested to hear your theories.
Winston and Temur
Still no real news but a friend in Holland sent me a link to an article in Le Monde [In French] that covers their capture.
As far as we know this is the first report to appear in Western media on the situation. Please continue to get it try and get the matter publicised.
I find the overall lack of press coverage on the issue baffling. Not even Winston and Temur's own paper The Messenger (website, blog) are covering it (though I did recieve an email confirming their capture when I wrote to them).
So
Still more confusion, still more contradictory unconfirmable reports and at the time of writing still more fighting.
I will update you all again at some point this evening with a bit more from the agencies and a bit more from me.
Sunday, August 10, 2008
This Morning's Propaganda
Just a quick one, though they often start out that way. I will have much more interesting information out after a good chat with my boss when she gets in.
Looking at the international agencies, not a huge amount seems to have happened since I reported last night. Though the situation moves quickly and who knows what can happen in the time it takes to write a post.
Update
I can dispell the rumours that Russian jets bombed Tbilisi's civilian airport, despite the BBC running with the story last night news agencies (and the MFA) have changed their story.
In an interesting U-Turn on the issue Georgian Minister Temur Yakobashvili denied the airport had been hit in an interview with the Israeli Haaretz newservice.
Despite this many information sources are still running the story.
I somehow doubt the Russians would bomb a civilian airport hours before Bernard Kouchner could land there as he arrives for talks aimed at ending the fighting. The Russians are behaving very aggressively but with any luck they're not on a mission to start WW3.
Further bombing did however take place last night. Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili told Reuters that Russian jets hit a military base and radar installation outside of Tbilisi.
Friends reported hearing explosions from the city centre and we've all heard jets flying overhead throughout yesterday and today (there goes one now).
The Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs published a panic inducing post on its blog this morning. Claiming Tbilisi, Ajara and Poti are all being intensively bombed and police in Zugdidi have been told to give up their arms by Russian peacekeepers.
Georgian chat is also awash with talk of Russian troops advancing towards Gori.
The extent of truth in these reports and rumours remains to be seen. We've had some very dubious reports from the MFA recently (they first reported the Airport bombing) and the hysteria amongst the Georgian population is at such a high level stories like "the Russians have taken Gori" are inevitable.
I will endeavour to find out if there are any grains of truth in these stories and report back after work.
Another myth some agencies are now rightly rushing to dispel (as the price of oil climbs on the tensions) is that the BTC Pipeline has been hit. BP deny all knowledge.
Good News
My boss literally just got into work, as did Muradi who I'd been told had been called. It turns out a lot of the reservists have been sent home, including my other friend I knew to be drafted, Eka's brother Beka!
I'm incredibly happy about this as you can imagine.
Looking at the international agencies, not a huge amount seems to have happened since I reported last night. Though the situation moves quickly and who knows what can happen in the time it takes to write a post.
Update
I can dispell the rumours that Russian jets bombed Tbilisi's civilian airport, despite the BBC running with the story last night news agencies (and the MFA) have changed their story.
In an interesting U-Turn on the issue Georgian Minister Temur Yakobashvili denied the airport had been hit in an interview with the Israeli Haaretz newservice.
Despite this many information sources are still running the story.
I somehow doubt the Russians would bomb a civilian airport hours before Bernard Kouchner could land there as he arrives for talks aimed at ending the fighting. The Russians are behaving very aggressively but with any luck they're not on a mission to start WW3.
Further bombing did however take place last night. Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili told Reuters that Russian jets hit a military base and radar installation outside of Tbilisi.
Friends reported hearing explosions from the city centre and we've all heard jets flying overhead throughout yesterday and today (there goes one now).
The Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs published a panic inducing post on its blog this morning. Claiming Tbilisi, Ajara and Poti are all being intensively bombed and police in Zugdidi have been told to give up their arms by Russian peacekeepers.
Georgian chat is also awash with talk of Russian troops advancing towards Gori.
The extent of truth in these reports and rumours remains to be seen. We've had some very dubious reports from the MFA recently (they first reported the Airport bombing) and the hysteria amongst the Georgian population is at such a high level stories like "the Russians have taken Gori" are inevitable.
I will endeavour to find out if there are any grains of truth in these stories and report back after work.
Another myth some agencies are now rightly rushing to dispel (as the price of oil climbs on the tensions) is that the BTC Pipeline has been hit. BP deny all knowledge.
Good News
My boss literally just got into work, as did Muradi who I'd been told had been called. It turns out a lot of the reservists have been sent home, including my other friend I knew to be drafted, Eka's brother Beka!
I'm incredibly happy about this as you can imagine.
Current Situation as of Sunday Evening
I'm exhausted, I've been averaging 3 hours sleep per night at best and today in particular has left me feeling completely dead. So I'm going to do you a quick update before getting some hard earned sleep in. I've got work tomorrow which will be far more exhausting than a weekend's worrying and writing (more on this later)
What I'm going to do is give a brief roundup of the current state of play, picking out the key points and comparing reports between Western and Russian agencies.
Then I'll do a little talking a about what we're all experiencing here, peppered with a little rumor and gossip from dinner.
Update
Once more I'm writing about a Georgian proposed ceasefire, Georgian Government sources and most international news outlets are reporting on Saakashvili's call for ceasefire to begin at 5am this morning.
Despite this there are still numerous reports of bombings, shellings and even naval battles coming from a wide range of sources.
I'm still not entirely sure (I don't think anyone does) whether or not Georgia is still in South Ossetia at all or not, there are reports that fighting is still continuing despite a supposed Georgian withdrawal.
One the Georgian MFA's (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) blog we have more reports of bombings on airfields outside Tbilisi. There is much contention as to which airfield(s) have been hit.
The MFA make the sensational claim that Tbilisi airport has been hit in addition to the "Tbilaviamsheni" airfield and armaments factory which was hit this morning.
A strike against Tbilisi airport would be a major escalation in the Russian bombing campaign signaling a move from military to civilian targets.
The Russian Ministry of Defence has strenously denied these claims and this time I'm willing to believe them. The expat community as I've said before is tightly knit and highly networked. Such a major development would not have gone unnoticed by any of us.
Though there is always the possibility that for some bizzare reason this slipped us all by I'm willing to put this down as Georgian propaganda till the morning. Interestingly some news agencies are running this story (notice the use of the airport in this report) Don't believe everything you see on TV guys.
Especially if you're watching Russian TV, digging around for information on Winston (more.. or less on Winston later) I was forced to trudge through a lot of RussiaToday video.
This is some of the scariest stuff I've seen in terms of war coverage so far. Whilst in comparison to our santised war coverage it's interesting to see the real impact of combat on innocent civilians (Russian reporting is very graphic) the rhetoric coming out of the Russian side hints at much more trouble to come.
Accusations of genocide and ethnic cleansing against the Georgians fills every line. Whilst claims such as these should not be taken lightly and there has in all likelyhood been some terrible acts committed by the Georgian side, blame for the high number of civilian casualties (a matter of contention in itself) cannot be attributed to the Georgians alone.
Both Russians and Georgians have been heavily shelling Tskinvali, a tactic which cannot be said to safeguard human life. Additionally at this stage without proper investigation claims as extreme as have been coming out of the Russian side (Georgians burning civilians in churches, Georgians throwing hand grenades in packed basement shelters, Georgian use of cluster bombs) should for not for the time being be accepted wholeheartedly.
Personally I worry that all this talk of genocide and ethnic cleansing may be used ala Kosovo to play the Americans at their own game and potentially to justify radical further action, perhaps as some Georgians suggest even up to "Regime Change".
Though of course that could be sleepless, paranoid hypothesising. It's still much too early to start making prediction on that sort of thing.
I mentioned naval warfare earlier, so I'll now try and bring you up to speed on the naughtical issues.
Interfax has been reporting since yesterday that a Russian fleet has been approaching Georgia from bases in the Ukraine across the Black Sea.
Many major news sources are reporting that Russian vessels have now sunk a Georgian missile boat that came out to meet them.
The sinking of the Georgian boat sort of sums up the whole conflict for me.
What was a Georgian boat (it may not surprise you the Georgians are not renowned for their prowess on the high seas) doing going out to meet the Russian Navy? Another desperate, pointless waste of life.
A silver lining in this South Caucasion stormy sea saga (excuse the alliteration, it's late) is that I've heard a number of reports (though I don't have the energy right now to go digging out a link) that the Ukraine, a staunch Georgian ally is none too pleased with the use of its naval facilities against Georgia.
Technically Russia leases its black sea port off the Ukraine (a recent treaty was signed to extend Russian presence there till 2017) Some more interesting rumors suggest that the Ukraine may not allow Russian ships to return to port.
Though this does seem to me somewhat fanciful and again would represent unprecedented escalation. More likely Russia will just get that little bit less popular with its former satellites.
Tbilisi
It's getting late so I'll try and blitz through this bit quickly.
Not wanting to get you all worried but foreigners are leaving Tbilisi. For the most part though they're tourists and families of expat workers. The vast majority of people I know here have opted to stay, especially those who've been here for a while.
For the most part those who are evacuating are leaving to Yervan in Armenia, generally to hang around there till things cool off.
None of the embassies have cleared out, though British Embassy might as well have. My friend went across to check on the situation this morning to find that the embassy on Tabesuplebis Moedani had closed.
Fearing the worst he rang around only to find that due to staff shortages and a touch of paranoia the embassy had been moved to an unknown location.
Apparently a whole load of new staff arrive tomorrow at which point a state of diplomatic normality will resume. I'm not impressed though and will most likely make arrangements with other embassies as a back up if things come to the worst.
Having said that, at the risk of sounding like a stuck record, I'm still confident Tbilisi is very safe. The unconfirmed reports of the airport being bombed are a little worrying but I'll look into that properly tomorrow.
Again there have been huge nationalist demonstrations. The one tonight the largest yet, having spent the day looking at pictures of destroyed buildings, injured civilians and reading nationalist propaganda I had no stomach for it.
Work tomorrow will be interesting to say the least. My organisation was formed as a response to the last war and specialises in dealing with the internally displaced. We have the networks, the resources and the experience to deal with the huge flows of people I'm hearing about evacuating Poti, Zugdidi and Gori.
I'll fill you all in a lot more on the refugee side of things as well as the average Georgian's perspective tomorrow after and during work. I'll probably be blogging less because I'll be working but I'll do my best.
Winston and Temur
Last but not least is the situation with Winston Featherly and Temur Kiguradze (see Winston Update). The only news is, there is no news. Which I suppose is news in itself, I'd have expected it to be all over the press by now but there's not a word on any of the major news sites.
I have been told that the US Embassy has been informed but apparently they're not being too helpful.
Seeing as I'm getting a few more readers at the moment I'd like to encourage all of you with a spare few minutes to have a quick word with the Embassy or a major news source of your choice just to get their case publicised.
Bed
Yes finally, the possibility of crazy morning phone calls aside I can look forward to at least 7 hours sleep.. I can't wait.
What I'm going to do is give a brief roundup of the current state of play, picking out the key points and comparing reports between Western and Russian agencies.
Then I'll do a little talking a about what we're all experiencing here, peppered with a little rumor and gossip from dinner.
Update
Once more I'm writing about a Georgian proposed ceasefire, Georgian Government sources and most international news outlets are reporting on Saakashvili's call for ceasefire to begin at 5am this morning.
Despite this there are still numerous reports of bombings, shellings and even naval battles coming from a wide range of sources.
I'm still not entirely sure (I don't think anyone does) whether or not Georgia is still in South Ossetia at all or not, there are reports that fighting is still continuing despite a supposed Georgian withdrawal.
One the Georgian MFA's (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) blog we have more reports of bombings on airfields outside Tbilisi. There is much contention as to which airfield(s) have been hit.
The MFA make the sensational claim that Tbilisi airport has been hit in addition to the "Tbilaviamsheni" airfield and armaments factory which was hit this morning.
A strike against Tbilisi airport would be a major escalation in the Russian bombing campaign signaling a move from military to civilian targets.
The Russian Ministry of Defence has strenously denied these claims and this time I'm willing to believe them. The expat community as I've said before is tightly knit and highly networked. Such a major development would not have gone unnoticed by any of us.
Though there is always the possibility that for some bizzare reason this slipped us all by I'm willing to put this down as Georgian propaganda till the morning. Interestingly some news agencies are running this story (notice the use of the airport in this report) Don't believe everything you see on TV guys.
Especially if you're watching Russian TV, digging around for information on Winston (more.. or less on Winston later) I was forced to trudge through a lot of RussiaToday video.
This is some of the scariest stuff I've seen in terms of war coverage so far. Whilst in comparison to our santised war coverage it's interesting to see the real impact of combat on innocent civilians (Russian reporting is very graphic) the rhetoric coming out of the Russian side hints at much more trouble to come.
Accusations of genocide and ethnic cleansing against the Georgians fills every line. Whilst claims such as these should not be taken lightly and there has in all likelyhood been some terrible acts committed by the Georgian side, blame for the high number of civilian casualties (a matter of contention in itself) cannot be attributed to the Georgians alone.
Both Russians and Georgians have been heavily shelling Tskinvali, a tactic which cannot be said to safeguard human life. Additionally at this stage without proper investigation claims as extreme as have been coming out of the Russian side (Georgians burning civilians in churches, Georgians throwing hand grenades in packed basement shelters, Georgian use of cluster bombs) should for not for the time being be accepted wholeheartedly.
Personally I worry that all this talk of genocide and ethnic cleansing may be used ala Kosovo to play the Americans at their own game and potentially to justify radical further action, perhaps as some Georgians suggest even up to "Regime Change".
Though of course that could be sleepless, paranoid hypothesising. It's still much too early to start making prediction on that sort of thing.
I mentioned naval warfare earlier, so I'll now try and bring you up to speed on the naughtical issues.
Interfax has been reporting since yesterday that a Russian fleet has been approaching Georgia from bases in the Ukraine across the Black Sea.
Many major news sources are reporting that Russian vessels have now sunk a Georgian missile boat that came out to meet them.
The sinking of the Georgian boat sort of sums up the whole conflict for me.
What was a Georgian boat (it may not surprise you the Georgians are not renowned for their prowess on the high seas) doing going out to meet the Russian Navy? Another desperate, pointless waste of life.
A silver lining in this South Caucasion stormy sea saga (excuse the alliteration, it's late) is that I've heard a number of reports (though I don't have the energy right now to go digging out a link) that the Ukraine, a staunch Georgian ally is none too pleased with the use of its naval facilities against Georgia.
Technically Russia leases its black sea port off the Ukraine (a recent treaty was signed to extend Russian presence there till 2017) Some more interesting rumors suggest that the Ukraine may not allow Russian ships to return to port.
Though this does seem to me somewhat fanciful and again would represent unprecedented escalation. More likely Russia will just get that little bit less popular with its former satellites.
Tbilisi
It's getting late so I'll try and blitz through this bit quickly.
Not wanting to get you all worried but foreigners are leaving Tbilisi. For the most part though they're tourists and families of expat workers. The vast majority of people I know here have opted to stay, especially those who've been here for a while.
For the most part those who are evacuating are leaving to Yervan in Armenia, generally to hang around there till things cool off.
None of the embassies have cleared out, though British Embassy might as well have. My friend went across to check on the situation this morning to find that the embassy on Tabesuplebis Moedani had closed.
Fearing the worst he rang around only to find that due to staff shortages and a touch of paranoia the embassy had been moved to an unknown location.
Apparently a whole load of new staff arrive tomorrow at which point a state of diplomatic normality will resume. I'm not impressed though and will most likely make arrangements with other embassies as a back up if things come to the worst.
Having said that, at the risk of sounding like a stuck record, I'm still confident Tbilisi is very safe. The unconfirmed reports of the airport being bombed are a little worrying but I'll look into that properly tomorrow.
Again there have been huge nationalist demonstrations. The one tonight the largest yet, having spent the day looking at pictures of destroyed buildings, injured civilians and reading nationalist propaganda I had no stomach for it.
Work tomorrow will be interesting to say the least. My organisation was formed as a response to the last war and specialises in dealing with the internally displaced. We have the networks, the resources and the experience to deal with the huge flows of people I'm hearing about evacuating Poti, Zugdidi and Gori.
I'll fill you all in a lot more on the refugee side of things as well as the average Georgian's perspective tomorrow after and during work. I'll probably be blogging less because I'll be working but I'll do my best.
Winston and Temur
Last but not least is the situation with Winston Featherly and Temur Kiguradze (see Winston Update). The only news is, there is no news. Which I suppose is news in itself, I'd have expected it to be all over the press by now but there's not a word on any of the major news sites.
I have been told that the US Embassy has been informed but apparently they're not being too helpful.
Seeing as I'm getting a few more readers at the moment I'd like to encourage all of you with a spare few minutes to have a quick word with the Embassy or a major news source of your choice just to get their case publicised.
Bed
Yes finally, the possibility of crazy morning phone calls aside I can look forward to at least 7 hours sleep.. I can't wait.
Ceasefire?
We're recieving reports through AP that Georgian troops have started observing a unilateral ceasefire.
However again we have another account from Interfax claiming that the Russian Government has recieved a note from Tbilisi offering a ceasefire but has not observed one on the ground.
A couple of separate sources in Tbilisi have reported that the two sides are in ceasefire talks and are one point away from an agreement.
So again we have a mass of contradictory reports. I'm sceptical about the possibility of a ceasefire whilst the Abkhaz continue to bomb Kodori Gorge, the Abkhaz are sufficiently independent from Moscow to keep it up anyway and I doubt they will stop until they've retaken it.
I have spent far too much time infront of the computer today, I've barely eaten save some rusks dipped in my coffee, I've hardly slept and I haven't washed. I'm going to take some time out, I'm sick of trying to get a modicum of truth out of vast swathes of constantly updating, contradictory propaganda.
I'll get a proper update done as soon as I'm fed, lunch will give me plenty of opportunity to sound out the rest of the expat community and gather information that wouldn't be available on the web.
Catch you all later.
However again we have another account from Interfax claiming that the Russian Government has recieved a note from Tbilisi offering a ceasefire but has not observed one on the ground.
A couple of separate sources in Tbilisi have reported that the two sides are in ceasefire talks and are one point away from an agreement.
So again we have a mass of contradictory reports. I'm sceptical about the possibility of a ceasefire whilst the Abkhaz continue to bomb Kodori Gorge, the Abkhaz are sufficiently independent from Moscow to keep it up anyway and I doubt they will stop until they've retaken it.
I have spent far too much time infront of the computer today, I've barely eaten save some rusks dipped in my coffee, I've hardly slept and I haven't washed. I'm going to take some time out, I'm sick of trying to get a modicum of truth out of vast swathes of constantly updating, contradictory propaganda.
I'll get a proper update done as soon as I'm fed, lunch will give me plenty of opportunity to sound out the rest of the expat community and gather information that wouldn't be available on the web.
Catch you all later.
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