Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Comprehensive Report From Sian in Tbilisi

I received this brilliant and thoroughly comprehensive report from my friend Sian who's still out in Tbilisi right now. It provides a much better insight into the current humanitarian situation than my last report which was largely based on information gathered from my organisation very early on in the crisis. Required reading. Keep up with Sian at her blog here

From Tbilisi, Georgia.

Just over one week ago my life in Tbilisi was a whirl of project planning, NGO meetings and parties. By Monday 11th we were racing for the Armenian border, convinced that Russian forces would soon be bombing Tbilisi and taking control of the city. After a week of fear, confusion, panic, rumours and evacuations, back in Tbilisi we are starting to focus on the real challenge of the crisis, the displaced people. Depending whose estimates you read, internally displaced people number are at least 70,000, more likely over 100,000, because there are so many areas unreachable and the assessment process is barely begun. At the moment the priority is assessing where they are and how many, improving the facilities for them and providing basic goods. To a certain extent the government, well the MRA (Ministry of Refugees) is able to provide estimates and addresses because they directed groups of refugees to certain buildings and settlements.

But the UNHCR warehouse which is the main focus of humanitarian aid supplies is by no means overstocked and access to the warehouse is tightly controlled. It contains, as of yesterday, only basic emergency supplies, like blankets, saucepans, plates and water cans. Yesterday I spent the day giving these out to 1000 refugees, with an international NGO, one of the approved distributors. We visited 5 IDP centres, varying in size from 1000 people to 30. Though we were only giving them these basic things, they were often extremely grateful.

We are wondering when the promised aid from nations in Europe and the USA will arrive, and what it will contain. Basic goods are the priority of course but this is not sustainable. There are no mattresses or cooking stoves right now for example- in many IDP centres everyone is sleeping on hard floors. Those who are housed in public buildings, often building sites (including the disused hospital which was housing 1000 refugees when we visited) are at constant risk of disease and injury. Sanitation will continue to be a significant problem, despite the efforts of the UN group on sanitation who are overseeing water supplies being re-established, as we were glad to see they were doing so at this ‘hospital’ when we arrived.

However next door to the hospital, in a small building which was half destroyed, were living 9 families, sleeping on the floor in one room. Other rooms in the rubble-filled structure were being used as a toilet. Common features of all the IDP centres are that they are overcrowded and lack basic facilities. Schools, hospital buildings and offices are not designed to hold 500 refugees. There are few buildings which are secure or have windows, few have enough beds or any kind of sleeping arrangements. Some are well organised, with committees of volunteers from outside or inside the IDP community who are creating lists and keeping them updated daily, ensuring they maintain contact with outside help and the government to receive the aid when they can. Others are not and are seeing new arrivals every day.

This was true of one of the last collective centres we visited and it underscored how fragile the crisis was. This, a school building containing 450 refugees, a number which was rising by the hour, was clearly fraught with emotion and anger, there were some men drinking themselves into a stupor, there was also nearly a fight that erupted as we were handing out aid. Moreover as the current situation continues, and it becomes obvious their temporary refugee state is not ending soon, it is clear to us and to them that these living arrangements are going to become more unbearable. Frustration will rise, nerves will become frayed, tension may give way to violence and anger. If there are problems, then the IDPs will find themselves becoming very unwelcome, very quickly, by the local communities. This will only make the work of humanitarian aid distribution harder.

Some of the refugees we met yesterday have moved 5 or 6 times in the past week, starting with an exodus from Tskhinvali, constantly fleeing from each new round of fighting, and ending in a school building in Gldani, a suburb of Tbilisi. It is amazing to me that these stories are still told by eyes that are weary, but smiling, and they can still laugh, chat and carry on with a semblance of normal life. Were I in their place, I would not trust myself to be so resilient.

The worst is seeing the children. There are huge numbers of children caught up in this, many of whom have seen horrific sights they should not have been exposed to. Many have lost parents. How do they understand this situation now, I wonder, when just over a week ago they were happily playing football in their yards with their friends? They have nothing with them. Most people ran with whatever they could carry but some came with just the clothes on their backs. So although at the moment basic goods are what the people need the most, we also have to start thinking about how to get books, toys etc to these kids, who are currently filling their days playing in the dirt or fighting with each other.

In Tbilisi, the fears of the international aid workers are beginning to diverge even further from the attitudes of the Georgian authorities. It appears as though they are very much convinced that once Russia pulls back, out of Georgia proper, then the refugees will return and the IDP crisis will be resolved. They have demonstrated this point of view by insisting the schools and kindergartens, currently housing IDPs, will reopen as scheduled, in three weeks time. Of course it would be a blow to the education system in this country if the schools do not re-open, but even if we can trust the intention of the Russians to pull out, this optimism is ludicrous.

It is almost certain that any IDPs from south Ossetia cannot go back, because Russia and the South Ossetian government will not allow them to. Those from Gori, who make up most of the Tbilisi IDP population, may not have anything to return to. I have not been into Gori and few, if any, humanitarian workers have been allowed to pass the road-blocks, so we cannot really know how bad the situation is there, except for journalists reports. However we can make some educated guesses at this point. Even if the homes of IDPs are still standing, which many wont be, they will be emptied of anything of value as mass looting has occurred there. If they owned cars, they will be burnt out or stolen, if they had a shop that will probably be looted and destroyed. No businesses will function there, there will be no jobs. Yet the government will expect them to return... to what?

No, the IDP problem Tbilisi and the surrounding areas currently face is not at its worst point yet and I honestly can’t see how it is going to get better. Many will have to remain and make their lives here, just as IDPs from the last secessionist war, over 10 years ago, have had to start their lives again. And I fear that the authorities will not go to great efforts to help IDPs integrate and recover their lives. Perhaps that is because the government cannot afford to support these people in the long term but also because it has shown, along with other countries hosting IDPs, including Azerbaijan, that it is politically useful to maintain an IDP population as a political pawn.

This is only the situation in Tbilisi because I can see it. But I know elsewhere the situation is many times worse. In fact, Tbilisi is the only place we are able to keep track of refugee numbers, partly because in villages and rural areas, families have taken refugees in and are providing for them. An NGO we are in contact with in the region of Guria has informed us there are about 4000 refugees in 2 towns living in these circumstances. This is a facet of the famous Georgian hospitality I have been familiarised with when travelling in rural areas too. Although their living arrangements will be in many ways preferable to that of the collective centres, it means that the authorities and humanitarian organisations do not have any idea how many people are there and where they are staying, so help is less likely to reach them. Those families, who have taken in one or two refugee families and are providing all their food and support, cannot afford to do so indefinitely.

Despite hosting an estimated 30,000 to 70,000 refugees, in Tbilisi everything is fairly calm, almost oddly normal, although the city is a little emptier than usual. It is obvious that Georgians have been through this before, have hosted huge numbers of IDPs and life carries on. But the sense of sobriety and shock is palpable, and though young people still walk arm in arm eating ice cream on the main street running through the city, no one looks to be enjoying themselves very much. I think we all fear for the future here, not least because it doesn’t look as if Russian forces have any intention of pulling out, despite many promises to do so. We keep hearing reports they are bringing in more heavy artillery, and ‘digging in’, literally digging bunkers, in the areas surrounding Gori. So, they may be here for a long time to come.

I cannot emphasise to those who are unfamiliar with Georgian geography how important the road is from Batumi to Tbilisi which goes through Gori. It is really the only main highway and the only fast road. It’s the artery of the country’s cargo transport, from the ports to the capital. It is also a road usually buzzing with business and families travelling back and forth. I have travelled the road myself many times, visiting central and west Georgia. Without this artery nothing is moving in Georgia. The economy is frozen and will suffer immeasurably.

Of course this is the intention of the Russian government. Gori is close enough to south Ossetia that they can justify it as a legitimate holding point, but in reality the objective is to paralyse the country. They are succeeding. Two days ago they also bombed the railway line, again, the only main railway link. The country is essentially divided into two blocks, areas accessible from Tbilisi, and the rest. No one can get to western Georgia and we have very little idea of what’s happening there, except that Zugdidi seems calm and fortunately Georgian troops withdrew from Abkhazia without a fight so life was able to continue there without bloodshed. Occupying the port of Poti and destroying its infrastructure, including sinking ships, will ensure that no supplies can get through by sea. It is only a matter of time before shortages are visible.

Aside from critical infrastructure they have also attacked economic targets, factories and businesses. The international business community will not want to be in Georgia and the foreign investment market that was flourishing just over a week ago is now in ruins. Tourism has been destroyed as soon as the black sea area became a target. Every summer thousands of Armenians have been pouring into the black sea resorts of Batumi and Kobuleti, bringing valuable tourist income to businesses. The confidence this has inspired led to a huge reconstruction project in Batumi. That has now gone. And as of yesterday, the national park at Borjomi, another tourist attraction and one of the most beautiful, wildlife rich places you can imagine, was burning. Who knows why and how the fire started.

What we do know is that tactics which were applied very well in Chechnya are being used in Georgia and it’s hard not to draw comparisons. Information is sketchy but it appears that, rather than being responsible for terrorising the remaining population themselves, Russian forces are deliberately arming anyone with a grudge to bear, ensuring the countryside affected by the war is filled with armed rebels, not in uniform, marauding around and helping themselves to whatever they would like. The casualties who are still rolling into the barely functioning medical services in Gori have apparently encountered these irregular forces, or bandits, who have been peppering the few remaining civilians with bullets, at will. This means, that even if the Russians do pull out, many sections of the countryside are likely to be no-go areas for a long time to come and IDPs are even less likely to be returned to their homes. At this point I also have little faith in the Georgian authorities’ ability to face the challenge of armed militias and protect the civilian population, not least because our own armed forces have been totally decimated.

We also fear what will happen to Georgia politically now. It seemed sure a few days ago that Saakashvili would have to step down and we were optimistic of a bloodless transition. But he, like the Russians, has ‘dug in’ during the past week and his position looks stronger than ever. If the Russians are expecting to remove him from power by remaining threateningly close to Tbilisi they too have miscalculated. They have only made the population panic and rally behind their leader. National flags and posters now adorn the main roads and streets in the capital. Rallies which were held to show unity with the Georgian people and demonstrations against the Russian occupation became somehow synonymous with supporting the regime. With popular legitimacy comes the ability to do whatever he likes and the high likelihood that when protests do erupt, as I’m sure they will, they will be dealt with severely. Authoritarian rule is only a few steps away. What that will mean for Georgia is a very frightening thing.

Should Georgia take a turn down this route, it is likely that the support of the international community will begin to deflate. In every aspect of this crisis, and as the situation on all fronts worsens, NGO workers and humanitarian aid distributors are completely powerless to affect anything or anyone. This entire conflict began, a week ago last Thursday, as a very risky, very nasty political game, in which innocent people were caught up. Now it is up to us to clean up the mess that has been created, in what little ways we can.

Sian Davies

British EVS Volunteer, for YUPMMG (“Youth Union of Public Movement Multinational Georgia” a Georgian youth NGO)

About me: I have been in Georgia now for 5 months, half of my expected 10 month EVS project and thus far I have had a very enjoyable and productive time here, working with young people form ethnic minorities on non formal education projects and integration issues, as well as election monitoring in minority areas. This was the last thing any of us expected and I am still unable to process the events of the past week and compare what the reality is now, with what my life was just 2 weeks ago. The majority of my international friends and fellow volunteers have been evacuated to their home countries, some of us remain, and some want to return soon, to do whatever we can and to direct those motivated to help from outside in fundraising. My Georgian friend’s lives are all on hold, as the country is, and many have lost loved ones or are separated from them by the conflict. My youth projects, which included a multiethnic youth peace summer camp due to start last weekend, are also indefinitely postponed. Everyone is trying to help IDPs now, in any way possible.

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Winston and Worcester

Winston

Great news on the Winston front! Recieved a message on a Georgian mailing list from a friend of his who'd spoken to him recently.

He is in a "plush moscow hospital" and "out of the woods". His parents are not with him but he plans to move on to either Germany or the UK within the next few days.

Temuri, the journalist who he traveled with to South Ossetia is also reported to be fine and due to return to Tbilisi tomorrow.

This comes as a great relief to all of us.

Me

On a more personal note, I'm in Berlin right now having caught up with a few old friends here in Germany. I'm getting a bus back tomorrow evening which is due to arrive in London around Tuesday lunchtime.

I've been in contact with the language school I arranged to work with in Georgia and I still have my job there. This is great news for me personally as it means I have a way to support myself on my return whilst helping out my organisation with the relief work.

I should be back in Tbilisi within the month if everything works out as it should.

For all you lovely folks back home, can I encourage those of you who are availiable to make your ways to Worcester over the next few weekends. It would be lovely to see you all and I'm going to be limited in the traveling I can do whilst I'm back.

Blog

The blog and I will be having a bit of downtime for the next few weeks whilst I recollect my thoughts and catch up with friends and family back home. I'll continue posting small points of interest and bits and pieces thrown up by my organisation but for the most part it should be fairly quiet.

Expect much more upon my return to Georgia.

Thanks for reading.

Ian

Friday, August 15, 2008

Winston, IDPs and Links

Ok then, sat in a rainy campsite/hostel in Munich feeling utterly inapropriate for drinking and socialising whilst everything's on so I thought I might just do a quick post bringing you all up to speed on a couple of things that might not have picked up in the press. I'm no longer "on the ground" so to speak but I've been in contact with a few people and found a few things out.

For bigger picture stuff it's worth looking at a number of news sources and trying to pull together the facts from the contradictions. I'll outline a number of sources at the end of the post.

Also in this post I'll finally give you all some fresh news on Winston Featherly, the journalist injured in South Ossetia and talk a little about the new wave of internal displacement that's hit Georgia from my organisation's perspective.

Winston

Finally some movement on this one, we've got a few news sources reporting it now. Though the only American one that seems interested is his state paper.

Unfortunately it seems that early hopes for Winston's condition might have been overly optimistic. He's reported to be one of the most seriously ill of the journalists injured in the incident that wounded him. He's in intensive care in Moscow General Hospital 86 and has recieved a blood transfusion.

He's been in contact with his family, he has recieved a couple of operations on his leg and is reportedly very weak and has difficulty communicating with his care givers as he doesn't speak Russian.

On a positive front he's been interviewed by a Fox News journalist so he should hit the mainstream media any minute now. He's also apparently due to be transfered to a military hospital in Germany as soon as possible.

I have concerns, not just for his health but his saftey, the Russians have been keeping him heavily under wraps, the western press have been suspiciously silent about his case despite attempts by many of us to get it published, he has probably seen a lot of stuff that could undermine Russian rhetoric.

I'm probably worrying too much.. We hope that he's all safe and sound and with his family within the next few days.

The Displaced

I've been talking with my boss in Tbilisi today, it was a relief to have contact again and to learn more about the situation for the fresh wave of IDPs that have been created by the conflict. My organisation has been dealing with displacement since the first war and has its work cut out from now on.

I was able to do my first of what I hope will be a large amount of work for the organisation by putting together a letter for our past and present donors briefly outlining the humanitarian situation and requesting help.

I've reproduced it here to fill you in on what we're dealing with. Compared to the first conflict the numbers are fortunately quite low. My concern is with the Russians in Gori, Zugdidi, Poti and Senaki it could get much worse quite quickly though I've completely given up on trying to make serious predictions about the tragectory of the conflict.



The disastrous conflict that has engulfed Georgia over the last week has triggered a fresh IDP crisis with tens of thousands of refugees fleeing their homes in Gori, South Ossetia and Kodori Gorge to escape the bombs and approaching tanks of the Russian army.

In some cases such as Senaki, where a Russian bomb destroyed a collective centre groups of refugees from the last war are forced once more to flee their homes.

We are writing to bring your attention to the conditions under which those who have been forced to escape are living.

We have been working under the coordination of UNHCR to begin a needs assessment of IDPs in Tbilisi. It is currently difficult to ascertain the full extent of the problem but preliminary reports are troubling.

According to data from the Ministry of Refugees and Accommodation of Georgia and UNCHR the number of IDPs in the capital Tbilisi number 19,350. These refugees make up the vast majority of the 23 000 who are estimated to have been displaced. There are also a significant 600 seeking refuge in Kutaisi.

A large number of those who fled are women and children many of which are very young (aged 2-5); there are also many pregnant and breastfeeding women who are beginning to suffer from lack of food

The IDPs are spread amongst 278 new collective centres in the capital, putting great additional pressure on existing efforts to support IDPs from the last war. The refugees are currently living in former hospitals, schools, kindergartens and hotels few of which are designed for accommodating people, let alone in such large numbers.

Water and sanitation are already becoming apparent as a problem. Most collective centres have been abandoned for some time and have fallen into disrepair. Many of the centres lack water and sewage and many have damaged or unusable toilet and bathroom facilities. Water for drinking and washing has to be carried from other buildings or other streets in many cases and the lack of decent washing and toilet facilities pose a serious risk to health.

There is a chronic lack of basic amenities. There is a small supply of beds, mattresses and blankets but not nearly enough to meet demand, many families have had to resort to using newspaper and cardboard boxes to sleep on.

Lack of food is also a major problem, especially given the number of young children and pregnant and breastfeeding women. When questioned about basic cooking and eating equipment on IDP replied “we do not have a food, so for what we will use the plates and glasses?”.

The high rates of physical and psychological trauma combined with the risk of diseases such as dysentery arising from the terrible living conditions (there are already a number of reported cases) are creating an acute need for a range of medicines.

There is therefore and urgent requirement for aid for the IDPs in a number of areas (food, water, sanitation, medicine and basic necessities). The longer it takes to resolve the issue the greater the risk to human health, we desperately need your support!

Please distribute this information to your friends and partners, the situation is still very unstable and we don’t know could potentially deteriorate further.

Any help you can give would be gratefully received.


I'll try and keep you all posted on the relief efforts as I get more information. My next post will be largely focused on this issue.


News Sources

As I said, my reporting will be taking a slightly different angle from now on, with less of a focus on current events and developments. I'm now going to give you a list of the main sources (aside from the obvious western ones) that I've been using to report on the situation. Read them yourselves and make your own minds up.

Georgian

civil.ge Major Georgian news source, regularly updated, certainly a very Georgian perspective. Has been hit by a number of DDoS attacks recently so here's a couple of mirrors.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs weblog provides the official Georgian Government line on the conflict. Read with a pinch of salt but a lot of the stuff that's been coming out of it has proven to be more reliable than its sensationalist tone suggests.

Interpress Some of my Georgian friends use this site, I haven't looked at it too much but they apparently they update pretty regularly and it's reasonably reliable. It's password protected but because of the conflict they've put the password on a banner on the home page.

Rustavi2 State broadcaster. I normally loathe them and I wouldn't expect particularly objective reportage. They've been heavily DDoSed too, look at it to see what information your average Georgian gets through their TV. They have lots of video (in Kartuli of course).

Russian

It's good to know what your enemy is thinking so I'll quickly recommend a couple of Russian sources. Read with caution of course ;-)

Interfax is a major Russian news agency, the site's main content is registration only but it's got a handy news ticker very regularly updated, we're talking by the minute here, though sometimes (often when something really important is happening) it stops updating for an hour or so. A good starting point for the hottest breaking news. I was glued to it for the first few days of the conflict. No depth what-so-ever..

Itar-Tass is another major Russian news agency, I didn't use this one as much because I really liked the rapid updates on interfax. A lot more depth though. The website is as ugly as hell.

Russia Today is Russia's premier television channel. Truly terrifying and not for the faint hearted, I get a nasty feeling in my stomach and very pessimistic about a quick end to it all everytime I go there. Lots of news, lots of video, these were the guys who interviewed Winston. Evil nationalist propaganda, watching this I know how an Iraqi feels watching CNN. They've got a youtube page too for quick, reliable video streaming.

Expat Blogs

I'd like to get more on here I only know a few and they're mainly my friends. If you know of any others please contact me with the link and I'll post it. When I get a bit more space I'll put a link bar on the side.

http://georgien.blogspot.com/>Georgia and South Caucuses Blog This one is great, really, really good I've been reading it for a while, long before this shitty war. This guy really knows what he's talking about. Lots of stuff about art and culture on it too.

Billy's blog Here's another guy who knows what he's talking about, unfortunately he's not quite as bitten by the blogging bug (aliteration unintentional) as myself or others. Keep an eye on it though, I'm bugging him to do more writing.

I've got atleast two more mates who are writing seriously about this, unfortunately I read their blogs on facebook so I can't link them, I've asked them for links so I'll have this message replaced by links to them as soon as I can.

As I said, I'll have these up on a sidebar soon.

There is of course also the legendary "Megobrebs" mailing list. It's only really for people in Georgia but if you're there and you're not on it, get it sorted out.

Anyway

I'm at a youth hostel, it's one o'clock and I'm virtually sober. Time to rectify this problem. Will post again soon.

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Munich

Feel terrible, accepted a flight to Munich with the German Embassy. Really spooked despite the ceasefire, tired, stressed, encouraged by Georgians, and worried there might not be another opportunity to get on a plane without paying.

Now it looks like it's chilled out considerably, though I doubt the Russians are finished with Georgia, they're not going to stop till Misha's out and an ex-KGB stooge is in his place.

Let's hope any further interference in Georgian politics is not done with the Russian military.

Left everyone and everything behind there, Munich is horrible, in a hostel with idiot backpackers talking loudly about shit music and beer.

On the upside by pure cooincidence by little brother is on holiday here right now.. I'm looking forward to seeing him more than anything else right now.

Utterly exhausted, mentally, emotionally and physically.

Won't be blogging for a little while, need to recouperate and work out a way back.

Thanks for reading over the last few days..

I'm so sorry to everyone I've left behind, Europe is empty and dead.. Nothing for me here.

Will let you all know what's going on as my plans develop.

Love Inni x

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Evacuation

OK guys, I'm going to get out.

Last night's rumours turned out to be largely untrue (especially the one I heard again and again about the Russians being five miles from Tbilisi)

Everyone here's in a state of shock and panic, no one knows what's really going on and poor lines of communication really don't help this.

Whilst I think it's still fairly safe in Tbilisi (as far as I know, no bombs fell last night for example) I can't really see the point in me staying anymore. War tourism is not cool and the work situation is not looking good.

Just had a very depressing chat with my boss. The organisation is pretty much doomed by the looks of things.

The Ruskies are pushing for regime change to get an ex-KGB stooge in (a number of names are circulating) With a pro-Russian government in, (pro-western) NGO activity will collapse, especially with our background in IDPs.

We can only hope "regime change" happens quickly and bloodlessly.

This whole thing stinks, I don't know how it happened but I really doubt it was just Misha making a bad move.

Time to go.

Good Night and Good Luck

Monday, August 11, 2008

Signing off for tonight..

Right, I'm going to make this brief, if you need real news on the ground from a Georgian perspective go to the Civil Georgia weblog

I was exhausted, stressed, smelly and hungry a few days ago.. Now I feel like I'm passing out the other side. Time to get away from it all and chill the fuck out.

Tbilisi is manic, cars speeding everywhere, queues at petrol stations, no money in the cash points.

The Russians are very-fucking-nigh.

Though we should be OK till tomorrow evening after Sarkozy leaves.

I'm starting to make contingency plans to get out, though I'm not quite ready to go yet. But the embassy is less than useless and I don't really want to get trapped here.

Avenues are still very much open right now and not wanting to put too much faith in what Misha says I agree with him that we'll have atleast 12 hours notice before anything serious happens in Tbilisi.

I'll try to keep you all updated, but I don't know for sure how much I'll be online over the next 24 hours.

Winston was mentioned by a Russian lie monger on CNN earlier today. I took some time today to contact some press about him. He's still nameless.

Time to make a move like. Still safe. Love you all.

Situation Escalating Rapidly

Some very agitated friends just arrived in the office, the situation by most reports seems to be spiraling out of control.

All we have at this stage is rumours however we are currently in a think tank with a number of high end Georgian academics who have the connections to confirm most of them.

We have fairly well confirmed reports that the Russians now have control of Gori. Something that the Russians are denying but by this point with troops in Senaki there is little reason for them not to take it and little in the way of resistance to stop them.

What will worry most of you is that the embassies appear to be evacuating, I have yet to hear from ours (I'm British by the way, or English as my Scottish friend would say) but the last few days have no faith in them.

Georgian media is reporting that Russian forces have taken over the main highway leading from West to East Georgia and the troops are advancing.

They are rumours unconfirmed by our sources of landings in Batumi, where a large proportion of the Georgian reserve is based.

Georgian troops are also rumoured to be retreating to Tbilisi, this is also unconfirmed as yet.

Russian Troops in Senaki

You go away for coffee and a bite to eat and next thing you know the Russians are deep in to Georgia proper and have captured one of Georgia's main military bases.

This has come as a shock to most people here as Gori was widely believed to be the target of a Russian advance.

It's got a lot of people here very nervous as it represents a serious new phase of the conflict with military advances being made over land on Georgian soil.

Information is still limited, we're doing our best to find out what's going on.

I'll make a new post within the next few hours or so to bring you all up to speed and will try to post any major breaking news where possible.

Quick Airport Update:

Still hearing stuff on the news about a strike on (or very near) the civilian airport in Tbilisi. There could perhaps be some truth in it after all. If so it was a very risky move by the Russians.

What is also possible is that I've heard the radar that was knocked out this morning serves the airport.

I am told this will not prevent flights too and from the airport but will in all likelihood reduce the number of flights that can take off and land at once significantly, perhaps even to one.

It is not completely impossible that the attack on the radar and the airport have become conflated.

Neither is it impossible that it was hit, I'll do some more digging around tonight.

Shameless Self Promotion

Too busy to spend too much time promoting the blog myself but it'd be nice if you all could get the word out ;-)

Conversations with Georgians

Work has of course been busy today, we've been inundated with emails from concerned donors and former partners. We spent this morning trying to draft a short report outlining the current situation for the country and for the organisation. I doubt it will be the last we make this week.

Through conversations with my boss I've managed to learn a bit more about the current situation in the cities in which we have offices, many of which were bombed (the cities not the offices).

Having spent the whole weekend in Tbilisi, mostly infront of computers or hanging around with expats this has been very interesting information for me as it's sometimes hard to get reliable information from outside of the city.

Zugdidi

In Zugdidi Russian troops patrol the streets. The city is currently completely deserted after the evacuation, a number of people are known to have stayed, some of our staff members for instance are preparing to help coordinate relief efforts.

Residents have mostly fled to villages in the Samegrelo region unable to flee to the relative saftey of Tbilisi due to the precarious situation in Gori endangering routes across the country.

There are reports of supply shortages and rising commodity costs in the villages, many food shops are closed, the price of petrol has soared and phone credit is changing hands at over three times its value.

Gori

The situation in Gori is grave, a large number of high rise flats have been damaged or destroyed, killing many civilians. The city has no electricity and communication is extremely difficult after the destruction of commercial communication masts by Russian bombers.

Rumours, mentioned in this morning's post and stoked by Saakashvili himself are still flying that Gori is being approached by Russian tanks.

If you read the article I linked to there you get a good idea that Russians in Gori is not an immediate threat. You also get a good picture of the confused double-speak Misha has collapsed into. I'm not going to go into Misha's future right now though.

The vast majority of Gori's population have fled to Tbilisi which is considered the safest place to be by most Georgians at the moment. It is not yet clear where the refugees are being hosted. Appeals have been made on television for Tbilisi locals to host families but, World Vision is reporting many have gone an IDP centre still existing after the last war.

My organisation has representatives within a large number of collective centres in Tbilisi, we hope to have up to date information on this issue after today.

Poti

There is less information on Poti. Russian airstrikes there over the weekend seem not to have destroyed the harbour. Evacuation proceedures began yesterday according to a source who used to work for the organisation. Those who remain are said to be in a state of panic.

Given that the harbour is still functioning I would imagine that Poti is not unlikely to be the unfortunate recipient of further Russian bombing raids, particularly given the presence of Russia's Black Sea fleet off the Georgian coast.

There were a large number of tourists in Poti when the bombs fell, the Black Sea is popular with both Georgian and foreign tourists. There have been no reports of any injuries to foreign tourists.

Senaki

The town that appears to be worst affected is Senaki, unfortunately it is also the town we know least about as our offices in Senaki were closed a while ago.

Located next to Georgia's newest most modern base it's a small town and bombs hit it in the centre, the railway station, main market, theatre and Bank of Georgia offices were all damaged.

Most importantly for my organisation an IDP collective centre was also hit. Being bombed out of the home you were forced into.. absolutely disgusting.

From what we have heard the base is still functional.

Vindicating my statements to reasure you, most Georgians believe that the capital is the safest place to be despite the recent bombing raids on targets just outside the city.

Secondhand Reports from Within the Georgian Army

A friend at work has friends who participated in the Georgian offensive to take South Ossetia. He was angry at government distortion regarding casualty figures and spoke of what friends had said regarding some confusing orders given on the battlefield.

Firstly, I would add the warning that it is very dangerous to deal with numbers at the moment. I'm positive both sides have been pulling straight out of the air numbers of casualties, injuries, people displaced, planes shot down and bombs dropped.

A soldier might however have a reasonable idea of how many lives were lost on his own side. My friend's, friend (not the best name for a source I know) estimates that up to 2,000 Georgian troops died the assault on Tskinvali between Friday and Saturday.

If Misha's estimates of 90% civilian casualties on the Georgian side are correct we're looking at 20,000 dead Georgians.. I don't think we're quite there yet.

As an aside and speaking of dodgy numbers Interfax is reporting that 2,000 foreigners are leaving Tbilisi. I have no idea where they got that number from, whilst I don't know how many of us expats have left (I'll look into it for you all though) it's a vast over estimate for sure.

Anyway another interesting thing that came out of my chat with my collegue was that according to his friend troops had reached the tunnel that links South Ossetia with North Ossetia (through which Russian troops made their counter-attack) twice. Both times troops were ordered by Georgian Generals to fall back without making the tunnel unpassable.

This baffled the troops, my friend and myself. Make of it what you will. I'd be interested to hear your theories.

Winston and Temur

Still no real news but a friend in Holland sent me a link to an article in Le Monde [In French] that covers their capture.

As far as we know this is the first report to appear in Western media on the situation. Please continue to get it try and get the matter publicised.

I find the overall lack of press coverage on the issue baffling. Not even Winston and Temur's own paper The Messenger (website, blog) are covering it (though I did recieve an email confirming their capture when I wrote to them).

So

Still more confusion, still more contradictory unconfirmable reports and at the time of writing still more fighting.

I will update you all again at some point this evening with a bit more from the agencies and a bit more from me.

Sunday, August 10, 2008

This Morning's Propaganda

Just a quick one, though they often start out that way. I will have much more interesting information out after a good chat with my boss when she gets in.

Looking at the international agencies, not a huge amount seems to have happened since I reported last night. Though the situation moves quickly and who knows what can happen in the time it takes to write a post.

Update

I can dispell the rumours that Russian jets bombed Tbilisi's civilian airport, despite the BBC running with the story last night news agencies (and the MFA) have changed their story.

In an interesting U-Turn on the issue Georgian Minister Temur Yakobashvili denied the airport had been hit in an interview with the Israeli Haaretz newservice.

Despite this many information sources are still running the story.

I somehow doubt the Russians would bomb a civilian airport hours before Bernard Kouchner could land there as he arrives for talks aimed at ending the fighting. The Russians are behaving very aggressively but with any luck they're not on a mission to start WW3.

Further bombing did however take place last night. Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili told Reuters that Russian jets hit a military base and radar installation outside of Tbilisi.

Friends reported hearing explosions from the city centre and we've all heard jets flying overhead throughout yesterday and today (there goes one now).

The Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs published a panic inducing post on its blog this morning. Claiming Tbilisi, Ajara and Poti are all being intensively bombed and police in Zugdidi have been told to give up their arms by Russian peacekeepers.

Georgian chat is also awash with talk of Russian troops advancing towards Gori.

The extent of truth in these reports and rumours remains to be seen. We've had some very dubious reports from the MFA recently (they first reported the Airport bombing) and the hysteria amongst the Georgian population is at such a high level stories like "the Russians have taken Gori" are inevitable.

I will endeavour to find out if there are any grains of truth in these stories and report back after work.

Another myth some agencies are now rightly rushing to dispel (as the price of oil climbs on the tensions) is that the BTC Pipeline has been hit. BP deny all knowledge.

Good News

My boss literally just got into work, as did Muradi who I'd been told had been called. It turns out a lot of the reservists have been sent home, including my other friend I knew to be drafted, Eka's brother Beka!

I'm incredibly happy about this as you can imagine.

Current Situation as of Sunday Evening

I'm exhausted, I've been averaging 3 hours sleep per night at best and today in particular has left me feeling completely dead. So I'm going to do you a quick update before getting some hard earned sleep in. I've got work tomorrow which will be far more exhausting than a weekend's worrying and writing (more on this later)

What I'm going to do is give a brief roundup of the current state of play, picking out the key points and comparing reports between Western and Russian agencies.

Then I'll do a little talking a about what we're all experiencing here, peppered with a little rumor and gossip from dinner.

Update

Once more I'm writing about a Georgian proposed ceasefire, Georgian Government sources and most international news outlets are reporting on Saakashvili's call for ceasefire to begin at 5am this morning.

Despite this there are still numerous reports of bombings, shellings and even naval battles coming from a wide range of sources.

I'm still not entirely sure (I don't think anyone does) whether or not Georgia is still in South Ossetia at all or not, there are reports that fighting is still continuing despite a supposed Georgian withdrawal.

One the Georgian MFA's (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) blog we have more reports of bombings on airfields outside Tbilisi. There is much contention as to which airfield(s) have been hit.

The MFA make the sensational claim that Tbilisi airport has been hit in addition to the "Tbilaviamsheni" airfield and armaments factory which was hit this morning.

A strike against Tbilisi airport would be a major escalation in the Russian bombing campaign signaling a move from military to civilian targets.

The Russian Ministry of Defence has strenously denied these claims and this time I'm willing to believe them. The expat community as I've said before is tightly knit and highly networked. Such a major development would not have gone unnoticed by any of us.

Though there is always the possibility that for some bizzare reason this slipped us all by I'm willing to put this down as Georgian propaganda till the morning. Interestingly some news agencies are running this story (notice the use of the airport in this report) Don't believe everything you see on TV guys.

Especially if you're watching Russian TV, digging around for information on Winston (more.. or less on Winston later) I was forced to trudge through a lot of RussiaToday video.

This is some of the scariest stuff I've seen in terms of war coverage so far. Whilst in comparison to our santised war coverage it's interesting to see the real impact of combat on innocent civilians (Russian reporting is very graphic) the rhetoric coming out of the Russian side hints at much more trouble to come.

Accusations of genocide and ethnic cleansing against the Georgians fills every line. Whilst claims such as these should not be taken lightly and there has in all likelyhood been some terrible acts committed by the Georgian side, blame for the high number of civilian casualties (a matter of contention in itself) cannot be attributed to the Georgians alone.

Both Russians and Georgians have been heavily shelling Tskinvali, a tactic which cannot be said to safeguard human life. Additionally at this stage without proper investigation claims as extreme as have been coming out of the Russian side (Georgians burning civilians in churches, Georgians throwing hand grenades in packed basement shelters, Georgian use of cluster bombs) should for not for the time being be accepted wholeheartedly.

Personally I worry that all this talk of genocide and ethnic cleansing may be used ala Kosovo to play the Americans at their own game and potentially to justify radical further action, perhaps as some Georgians suggest even up to "Regime Change".

Though of course that could be sleepless, paranoid hypothesising. It's still much too early to start making prediction on that sort of thing.

I mentioned naval warfare earlier, so I'll now try and bring you up to speed on the naughtical issues.

Interfax has been reporting since yesterday that a Russian fleet has been approaching Georgia from bases in the Ukraine across the Black Sea.

Many major news sources are reporting that Russian vessels have now sunk a Georgian missile boat that came out to meet them.

The sinking of the Georgian boat sort of sums up the whole conflict for me.

What was a Georgian boat (it may not surprise you the Georgians are not renowned for their prowess on the high seas) doing going out to meet the Russian Navy? Another desperate, pointless waste of life.

A silver lining in this South Caucasion stormy sea saga (excuse the alliteration, it's late) is that I've heard a number of reports (though I don't have the energy right now to go digging out a link) that the Ukraine, a staunch Georgian ally is none too pleased with the use of its naval facilities against Georgia.

Technically Russia leases its black sea port off the Ukraine (a recent treaty was signed to extend Russian presence there till 2017) Some more interesting rumors suggest that the Ukraine may not allow Russian ships to return to port.

Though this does seem to me somewhat fanciful and again would represent unprecedented escalation. More likely Russia will just get that little bit less popular with its former satellites.

Tbilisi

It's getting late so I'll try and blitz through this bit quickly.

Not wanting to get you all worried but foreigners are leaving Tbilisi. For the most part though they're tourists and families of expat workers. The vast majority of people I know here have opted to stay, especially those who've been here for a while.

For the most part those who are evacuating are leaving to Yervan in Armenia, generally to hang around there till things cool off.

None of the embassies have cleared out, though British Embassy might as well have. My friend went across to check on the situation this morning to find that the embassy on Tabesuplebis Moedani had closed.

Fearing the worst he rang around only to find that due to staff shortages and a touch of paranoia the embassy had been moved to an unknown location.

Apparently a whole load of new staff arrive tomorrow at which point a state of diplomatic normality will resume. I'm not impressed though and will most likely make arrangements with other embassies as a back up if things come to the worst.

Having said that, at the risk of sounding like a stuck record, I'm still confident Tbilisi is very safe. The unconfirmed reports of the airport being bombed are a little worrying but I'll look into that properly tomorrow.

Again there have been huge nationalist demonstrations. The one tonight the largest yet, having spent the day looking at pictures of destroyed buildings, injured civilians and reading nationalist propaganda I had no stomach for it.

Work tomorrow will be interesting to say the least. My organisation was formed as a response to the last war and specialises in dealing with the internally displaced. We have the networks, the resources and the experience to deal with the huge flows of people I'm hearing about evacuating Poti, Zugdidi and Gori.

I'll fill you all in a lot more on the refugee side of things as well as the average Georgian's perspective tomorrow after and during work. I'll probably be blogging less because I'll be working but I'll do my best.

Winston and Temur

Last but not least is the situation with Winston Featherly and Temur Kiguradze (see Winston Update). The only news is, there is no news. Which I suppose is news in itself, I'd have expected it to be all over the press by now but there's not a word on any of the major news sites.

I have been told that the US Embassy has been informed but apparently they're not being too helpful.

Seeing as I'm getting a few more readers at the moment I'd like to encourage all of you with a spare few minutes to have a quick word with the Embassy or a major news source of your choice just to get their case publicised.

Bed

Yes finally, the possibility of crazy morning phone calls aside I can look forward to at least 7 hours sleep.. I can't wait.

Ceasefire?

We're recieving reports through AP that Georgian troops have started observing a unilateral ceasefire.

However again we have another account from Interfax claiming that the Russian Government has recieved a note from Tbilisi offering a ceasefire but has not observed one on the ground.

A couple of separate sources in Tbilisi have reported that the two sides are in ceasefire talks and are one point away from an agreement.

So again we have a mass of contradictory reports. I'm sceptical about the possibility of a ceasefire whilst the Abkhaz continue to bomb Kodori Gorge, the Abkhaz are sufficiently independent from Moscow to keep it up anyway and I doubt they will stop until they've retaken it.

I have spent far too much time infront of the computer today, I've barely eaten save some rusks dipped in my coffee, I've hardly slept and I haven't washed. I'm going to take some time out, I'm sick of trying to get a modicum of truth out of vast swathes of constantly updating, contradictory propaganda.

I'll get a proper update done as soon as I'm fed, lunch will give me plenty of opportunity to sound out the rest of the expat community and gather information that wouldn't be available on the web.

Catch you all later.

Winston Update

We've found a video stream of Winston being interviewed from a hospital on RussiaToday.



He's on about 20-21 minutes into the feed.

We can confirm that he's been shot, he seems to be in decent shape though. The video footage of him isn't synched with his audio but it's definitely his voice, I have a small suspicion he's been taken majorly out of context.

He says:

"We came here at the start of things, we ran into some problems and they took us to the hospital, I've been here since and I don't know what's going on"

"After we got shot we spent three days here"

"A photographer and a journalist with us were killed. I think one was stringing for Echo Moskvi and the other one was a freelance photographer who has an agency in Georgia"


The Russians claim they don't know his name, they appear to be spinning it so it was the evil Georgians who injured him so the whole thing is probably quite sensitive.

A message on the megobrebs newsgroup reports that he and Temur Kiguradze another messenger journalist have sustained injuries but are well and due to be transferred to Vladikavkaz hospital in North Ossetia.

The broadcast as a whole is extremely pro-Russian and I would advise anyone watching without a background in the situation to take a lot of the information with a healthy pinch of salt.

We cannot confirm or deny he's been "captured" I doubt he has much choice about what he's doing. As an American he should hopefully be treated well, I pray the same can be said for his Georgian collegue.

We're all praying for the saftey of Wiston and Temur, our thoughts also go out to their families and collegues.

Terrible News..

I'm yet to find confirmation but I've recieved a report from a reliable source that Messeger Journalist Winston Featherly has been injured and captured reporting from Tskinvali.

The source states that he was interviewed in a hospital bed apparently looking well on the Russian TV channel RussiaToday.

I haven't been able to find any reports on the internet from the RussiaToday website or from the usual sources.

This comes as a shock to many of us who have been living in Tbilisi, Winston is known personally to many of us. All our thoughts go out to him.

This issue is potentially very sensitive as Winston is an American National.

I'll bring more on this story as information comes in.

Abkhazia

With a relative lull reported in fighting in the area around Tskinvali as Georgian forces pull back. Attention is being turned to Georgia's other separatist region Abkhazia.

Reports were coming in yesterday of Abkhaz troop mobilisations and bombing raids by "Abkhaz" jets on the Kodori Gorge. The Kodori Gorge (as discussed in an earlier post) is a strategic location within Abkhazia which is occupied by Georgian forces.

UN assistant secretary-general for peacekeeping Edmond Mulet is quoted by agencies as saying "At this point we are particularly concerned that the conflict appears to be spreading beyond South Ossetia into Abkhazia,"

Not that you should believe everything you read on the Russian News Agency Interfax (source of some dubious martial law rumours the other day) But they're reporting Sergi Bagapash has made three very concerning statements:

1) Georgian troops will be pushed out of Kodori - Bagapsh
2) Abkhazia utterly rejects dialogue with Tbilisi - Bagapsh
3) Abkhazia plans to "restore order" in Georgia's Zugdidi district -Bagapsh

We have been anticipating 1) since the bombings and the troop buildups yesterday, and 2) Is another perfect example of the ridiculous inflamatory rhetoric you hear from both sides at the moment, I really with these fuckers would learn to watch their mouths.

3) Is new and worrying. Zugdidi is a city just on the Georgian side of the Abkhaz border. My organisation runs a number of programmes there and I carried out a training there a few months ago. It's a nice place, though the plastic palm trees that line the streets are somewhat tacky.

An Abkhaz incursion into Zugdidi would bring the war, on land into Georgia propper for the first time. Given current rhetoric around "genocide", "ethnic cleasing" and horror stories about acts by Georgian troops being bandied about by the Russians it could be expected to be a bloody assault.

Not only would casualties be disasterous but the war enter a new and dangerous phase on Georgian soil (though if you ask Georgians they will tell you it never left Georgian soil, which is true in a sense but I don't want to get into this debate)

I'm still watching in horror and disgust. Once more, I'm fine, I'll give an update on the status in Tbilisi as soon as some friends get back to the office with news.

UPDATE: 14:53 Georgia Time.. Interfax is reporting that Zugdidi is being prepared for evacuation in anticipation of action by Abkhaz forces.

Early Optimism..

..may have been misplaced. Press reports as discussed in previous posts are contridictory and confusing.

Whilst the BBC home page is reporting that Georgian troops are pulling out of South Ossetia the word on the ground in Tbilisi is that this appears to be more of a withdrawl from the area around the South Ossetian capital Tskinvali. Read tactical retreat.

The fact that the Georgians seem to have abandoned any hope of taking Tskinvali for the time being does not appear to be translating into an end of hostilities.

A BBC Russia reporter covering a statement by an Ambassodor by the building I'm writing from told me that the press centre in Gori has been evacuated, due to fears of further Russian airstrikes.

More as it comes in.

Saturday, August 9, 2008

Possible Good News

There are reports coming in that Georgia is withdrawing it's forces from South Ossetia. This represents the first major positive development in the last three days.

The Georgian Interior Ministry have been quoted on the BBC as saying it was not a military defeat but a necessary step to protect civilians from a "humanitarian catastrophe"

I imagine the pull out is in part a result of the US's indication that the situation should be resolved around the pre August 6th status quo, which can be read as a refusal to support Georgian presence in South Ossetia.

The Russians have stated Georgian withdrawal as a prerequisite for ceasefire.

We're all feeling a hell of a lot better after this. We can only hope this is the beginning of a new, more stable phase in the crisis.

I'll keep you all posted with new developments and try and get an analysis piece done by this evening.

Rude Awakenings

Got a call this morning from a friend informing me that the American Embassy are evacuating their non essential staff and family members. If I'd had been asleep that would have been unpleasant. Woke all my friends up. They weren't happy but it looks like today could be quite interesting.

The British Embassy aren't even up yet.

To clarify the earlier post, what was hit was "a military airfield belonging to Tbilaviastroi plant" which is used to make tanks for the Georgian Army, some early reports seemed to suggest that it might have been Tbilisi airport.

Still think there's not a lot of chance of Tbilisi propper getting hit, unless of course the Russian fighter pilots have had the same sort of amount of sleep as me.

I'm gonna try and crash, gonna need to be with it today.

Will keep you all updated as the day goes on.

Another Quick Update

Tweaked out on energy drinks and adreneline, unable to sleep. Thought I heard jets flying overhead followed by a bang at what must have been about 6 this morning. Thought nothing of it and tried unsuccessfully to get back to sleep. Could well have been my hyped up imagination but the BBC are reporting that Russian jets have bombed a Georgian airbase near Tbilisi. This could well be another strike on Vaziani which was also bombed on friday.

Pure speculation but this could be something to do with the fleet of Russian ships that are reportedly moving across the Black Sea towards Georgia. It would make sense to do as much as possible to incapacitate the Georgian Airforce before the ships arrive. Again I would like to note that if these reports are true and there was an attack, it was again against a military target outside of Tbilisi propper.

Outside seems calm, I was reasured to see an old lady sweeping the rubbish out the road as I had a fag and swigged some of last nights beer to calm my nerves.

Fear and Loathing in Tbilisi

OK

To start things off I'm going to make this posting a little different from my last few on the conflict. I've tried in my previous posts to compile fragments of news I've spent the day reading into a single document attempting to summarise the current situation. Whilst I hope this has been useful for those trying to find out exactly what's going on without wading through piles of agency reports this approach has presented a few problems:

Firstly, a lot of you have been messaging me throughout the day trying to find out how I'm doing as opposed to wanting to know "who said what?" and "where's being bombed?", so I will start off this post by filling you all in on my personal situation and hopefully assuage some of your fears.

Secondly, I've been using of information from press agencies, it's becoming increasingly apparent that a lot of these sources are not particularly reliable, a particularly good example of this would be the reports of martial law in Tbilisi which proved to be spurious. There's a lot of propaganda and misinformation coming from both sides that's reflected in the difference in coverage by Western and Russian agencies.

Additionally many Georgian news sources as I mentioned in my previous post are down though Rustavi2 is back on the air if not the internet and civil.ge is accessable through refuge.ge. So I'll try and provide a "ground level" report here based more on sources in Tbilisi. Whilst these are equally subject to rumour and propaganda I hope to give you a perspective you might not find in most other places on the internet. So in the second part of this post I'll try and get you all up to speed but I'll try to use a broader range of sources.

Finally in attempting to provide a journalistic style report of current events I've deliberately tried to leave my own baggage behind and avoid expressing my own opinion. Having lived in Tbilisi for the last five months and grown very close to the people here I have my own, constantly developing take on the situation. In the last part of the post I'll take the opportunity to get a few things off my chest and share my own perspective with you.

Me

First things first I'm safe, whilst a few tourists are leaving the country, embassies are issuing travel warnings, Tbilisi is not too far from the conflict zone and bombs have been dropped within a few kilometres of the city limits I still believe I'm in one of the safest places in the country. Whilst everything right now is subject to change a Russian air raid on Tbilisi propper would be an extreme turn of events.

There are still hundereds of foreigners in the capital, possibly including Russians, as I write the only organisation I know of that is close to pulling out is the American PeaceCorp who are notorious for their over-cautiousness. A direct air strike on say for example Georgian administrative buildings in Tbilisi would not only risk injury to western nationals (the British Embassy and major hotels are all on the same road as the parliament and M.o.D buildings) but would escalate the war to a level at which NATO would almost certainly be forced to intervene.

The Russians are not stupid and especially whilst the Olympics are on will continue to portray their actions as Peacekeeping activities largely centred around South Ossetia to avoid provoking an international outcry. The targets that have been bombed were chosen as military targets and I do believe that despite the attrocious civilian casualties in sustained in Gori the Russians will for sake of face try to avoid civilian death where possible.

The situation is however extremely fluid and how it will continue is anybody's guess. I am in contact with the British Embassy and spend most of my time glued to the internet. Should the situation take a turn for the worse I can assure you all that I will get to somewhere safe as fast as possible. I have a good group of expat mates here, we stick together constantly and have discussed a number of contingency plans should our embassies prove useless.

I am determined however to see this through, I won't take any unecessary risks but the thought of having to leave Georgia right now appals me. For starters I have a lot of Georgian friends who've been called up as reservists, should as expected Georgia's fortunes take a serious turn for the worse many expect that non-reservists and those without military experience will be drafted. The thought of leaving and reading an email from the comfort of my parents house in Worcester from Eka (my boss) telling me that Beka (her brother and my friend) has returned from Tskinvali in a body bag makes me feel sick.

Secondly I did a Security Studies degree, I'm interested in working in development (though a lot of interesting journalism opportunities have presented themselves recently too) I will inevitably end up living in a number of countries that are unstable to say the least. This might not be the last time something like this happens to me. This is something you and I will both have to get used to I'm afraid.

Thirdly my organisation really needs me right now, we've lost a key member of staff to the draft, if things escalate we may lose more. The organisation has been in something of a malaise for the last few years and again with a fresh refugee crisis (more on this later) we are needed now more than ever. I'm particularly concerned about the Georgian ethnic city of Gali in Abkhazia, residents there have faced violence and persecution ever since the province separated from Georgia. This war could provide fresh impetus to their persecution, possibly leading to fresh refugee flows into neighbouring towns like Zugdidi.

Additionally (and I feel a pang of guilt for saying this) this is interesting, this is very fucking interesting. This is an experience that will stick with me for the rest of my life and I don't feel ready to finish it now. I've committed myself to another year and I want to carry it out.

Anyway the rate at which things are changing it could be over in a few days. The Georgians don't stand a chance against Russia, whilst I can't say it will finish soon I can't see the Georgian army sustain this.

We shall see.

Tbilisi

Tbilisi is strange, the atmosphere here is unlike anything I've experienced before. It's so quiet, with the draft the only people on the streets sometimes seem to be women, the old, and the very young. To be honest with you too much of my time has been spent in offices glued to every other update on the internet and whilst I'm in contact with my Georgian friends most of my time has been spent disecting the situation from every angle with expats.

In both the Georgian and Expat communities people are still absorbing it all and reactions are mixed. There is a lot of nationalist sentiment, last night we hit the streets with a bottle of vodka and tried to take it all in. As I mentioned in my earlier post there've been nationalist demonstrations, we joined the convoy and chatted to the demonstrators, most were upbeat, confident and fervently nationalistic. All of them however talked about "suidobis", peace.

Flags were waved, songs were sung, car horns were honked and cries of "Sakhartvelos Garumajos!" (Georgia Cheers!) rang out across the street. Many of those demonstrating were due to leave for the army today. I couldn't help worrying that their optimism and enthusiasm would be shortlived, tonight has seen much less of this activity, though the cars still drive past flying the flag and honking their horns a new, more tense feeling seems to have entered downtown Tbilisi.

Outside the parliament today refugees from Gori gathered seeking accomodation. I saw the tail end of it, and tried talking to a few unfortunately most were older and unable to speak English. From discussions with expat friends I've heard that there were angry scenes when they first arrived, many were furious with Misha (Georgian's pet name for Saakashvili) for starting the war and endangering their city and lives.

Many Georgians are terrified, I've been in contact with Eka (my boss) a couple of times, she sounded tired, stressed and spoke often of how terrible the situation is. I really fear for her, an IDP (displaced by the first war) from Abkhazia herself she has no desire to see more bloodshed. She's watching her family and friends being dragged up to fight a war which can't be won, she fears her husband and the father of her two young children might get drafted too. She's out of Tbilisi this weekend, I await apprehensively to catch up with her properly on Monday.

Short chats and facebook status messages indicate the same undertone of fear and foreboding amongst a lot of other friends and aquainances too. We all seem to spend every spare second desperately looking for fresh information, sharing stories and rumours and speculating about what might happen.

Debate generally centres around where it's all going, none of us really have much of a clue, and we all worry that no one does, not Misha, not Putin, not Bush.

"How long will it last?" "How far will it spread?" "How will Nato react?" "How much did the Yanks know about it in advance?" "How long has it been planned for?" "Did you hear about this?" "Do you know what really scares me?" "What's the line we'd cross where you'd go?" The same questions keep on coming back again and again. We slip in and out of it, spending time talking about music, women, men, this club in Detroit, this party I went to in Bradford on time where.. But as soon as the small talk dies down we're right back to it "Will there be a ceasefire?" "Would Misha even contemplate pulling back troops?" "I just heard Muradi's going to the front"

There's always so many questions from our friends who've left Georgia too, I hope a lot of you are reading this now, it means a lot to us that there's all these people out there thinking about it. There's also the constant chats with friends and family back home who see the news and worry about us, the pictures on the TV are scary, war is scary, we've all got a lot of keeping in touch, catching up, reasuring and filling in to do. Thanks for all your concern and support guys! Sorry if we can't give you all the neccessary time, there's so much going on and we're talking to so many people. All I can say is keep on reading and I'll do my best to keep you up to date.

We love you all. It's strange to think a load of people out there aren't connected to this, in a way we all envy the messages we see about parties and festivals and holidays and new tattoos. But again, this is where we all need to be and none of us really want to go.

Ugh, it's half past two here and I'm getting mushy.. There's stuff I need to fill you in on, I'm going to get back to serious reporter mode.


Update

As I said before there's so much contradictory information out there, and so much of it's so politically loaded. Good luck to the rest of you who're trying to dig through it all to find "the facts". Numbers for one thing are certainly not to be trusted, the Russian news agencies for example are reporting 1,500 ossetian civilian and 15 Russian troop casualties, which seems ludicrous.

I'll try and keep to stuff that's happened since my last post but I'm very tired and I may end up repeating stuff, I'll try and keep it as short and digestable as possible, you've already read a lot and I've already written a lot.

There seems to be moves at the moment to broker a ceasefire, the BBC is reporting that a delegation of US and EU envoys is on its way to Georgia as I write to help bring an end to hostilities. Saakashvili called for a truce much earlier in the day, however the Russian side has stated that it's not prepared to negotiate unless Georgia withdraws its troops.

Given the damage that has already been done to Georgia in terms of life, infrastructure and international face I think at this stage this is unlikely, Misha needs to be able to tell the public that this awful misadventure has achieved something. A cynic might say that his call for a ceasefire only came after the tide of battle started turning against Georgia and the war opened up on the Abkhaz front.

Georgia and Russia are arguing over who "controls" Tskinvali. Control seems to me to be a bit of a mute point at the moment, there's going to be very little left of Tskinvali left at the moment.

Rhetoric on both sides is inflamatory, the Russians are accusing the Georgians of genocide and ethnic cleansing, this reads as an eerie reflection of the descriptions of Russian and Abkhaz behavior in the first war.

The Georgian's accuse the Russians of trying to "Destroy" Georgia, given the disasterous consequences we are already seeing of the war it is not hard to see how many Georgians could think that the very integrity of Georgia as a state might hang in the balance. With this mindset potentially prevalent amongst a significant segment of society and perhaps more importantly the military, I worry that this might provide motivation to Georgia to keep on fighting "to the death"

We are still trying to verify some very concerning reports coming from the Georgian side that the Russians have targeted the Baku, Tbilisi, Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline that links Azeri gas fields to Turkey. I'll be writing more about the pipeline in future posts, in it's cruicial to Georgia's economy, how the west will react and perhaps Russian motivations.

The End?

For the time being though I'm going to have to sign off. I haven't quite achieved all I wanted with this post, the above update is patchy at best and I haven't got the energy to form a cogent monologue on my own feelings about the whole thing. Suffice it to say I'm very fucking pissed off with Misha for rising to Russian bait and embarking on this suicidal venture. I'm also very fucking pissed off with the Russians, it's hard not to be, they've shaped the situation for the last 15 years, it could be argued that there are many in the Kremlin who wanted this war.

But it's a long and complicated analysis, it's quarter past three I'm currently running on cheap cigarettes, brandy/coke cocktails, energy drink and a caffiene pill I got from an American friend. This is not sustainable. I need to rejoin my friends for a final fag and brandy before bed.

Keep reading.

A Quick Update on the Situation in Tbilisi

Just to note that martial law does not seem to be in place in Tbilisi right now. We had received reports through a number of news agencies however after fact checking with the British Embassy and a casual glance around the town these reports seem to be somewhat dubious. Having to rely on Russian and International websites for updates on goings on in Georgia is rather limiting.

I will provide a fuller update after getting some much needed food and spending another hour or so war-geeking.

Georgia and Russia at War

Georgia's incursion into South Ossetia has escalated significantly in the past 24 hours. Reuters reports that the Georgian parliament has approved a "State of War" between Georgia and Russia.

Heavy fighting continued overnight in and around the South Ossetian capital Tskinvali. Initialy Georgia claimed to have captured Tskinvali, however by this morning witnesses report that the capital is once more completely in the hands of the Russian backed separatists after Russia sent hundereds of troops to reinforce its peacekeeping force in the region.

Interfax reports that fighting still continues around Tskinvali with Georgian artilery continuing to shell Russian positions.

There are reports of heavy casualties, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in a statement to the press today claimed 1,500 people have been killed since the fighting began on Friday. Reports are as yet unconfirmed however witnesses say Tskinvali has been completely destroyed by artilery from both sides.

Russian officials claim 30,000 refugees from the conflict have crossed the border to North Ossetia

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili today called for a ceasefire as the conflict escalates into Georgian territory.

Russian planes have carried out a number of bombing raids on sites within Georgia. Thousands of civilians are reported to be fleeing the Georgian city of Gori after a number of strikes destroyed appartment blocks in the city centre.

The Georgian port of Poti is reported to have been severly damaged following airstrikes by Russian planes last night.

Bombs also fell on Vaziani airbase a short distance from the Georgian capital Tbilisi.

Most concerning is reports coming in of airstrikes on Georgian positions in Kodori Gorge, a vital strategic territory in Georgia's other separatist region, Abkhazia which has been occupied by Georgian forces since 2001. The attack on the Gorge represents a broadening of the fronts on which the war is being fought and risks bringing the conflict to Abkhazia.

Reports coming from AP as I write indicate that the situation in Abkhazia is escalating as Abkhazian forces begin an operation in the Gorge to remove the Georgian military presence.

The Gorge along with Gali is one of the two major sites in Abkhazia that remain inhabited by a majority Georgian ethnic population.

At 1115 today, a state of Martial Law was declared by the Georgian Parliament. A curfew will be enforced and ID must be carried at all times. However at the time of writing few military personel are to be seen on the streets of Tbilisi.

Thousands of reservists have been called up to fight in the breakaway region. On Friday in Tbilisi young men gathered to be loaded on to buses and taken to bases near Gori.

Hundereds of Georgian nationalists filled the streets of Tbilisi yesterday, driving up and down the main thoroughfare waving flags and honking their horns. A group gathered outside the Russian Embassy and held a candle lit vigil to demonstrate against Russia.

Georgian media outlets are functioning sporadically or not at all. Last night the national broadcaster Rustavi2 ceased broadcasting and it's website is currently inaccessible. Another major news source Civil.ge a is also currently offline. Speculation is rife as to whether this is as a result of a Russian cyber attack such as that experienced by Estonia in 2007.

Friday, August 8, 2008

Georgia invades South Ossetia

Georgian forces last night entered South Ossetia in an attempt to regain control of the Secessionist territory.

Large numbers of Georgian reservists have been called up to assist in the conflict.

Current reports from the Georgian side claim that the South Ossetian capital is surrounded with the Georgian television channel Rustavi2 reporting that 70% of the South Ossetian capital Tskinvali is under Georgian control.

The Russian news agency Interfax quotes a CIS Peacekeeping Force Commander as claiming Tskinvali is "practically destroyed by Georgian shelling"

A ceacefire has been announced by Georgian forces to allow civilians to leave via a humanitarian corridoor, however Russians claim that the corridoor is yet to come into effect.

Interfax reports that Georgia has given South Ossetia forces three hours to surrender.

South Ossetia's ally Russia has strongly condemned Tbilisi's actions and openly discussed retaliation.

Russian President Dimitry Medvedev responded angrily to the Georgian assault "I must protect the life and dignity of Russian citizens wherever they are. We will not allow their deaths to go unpunished"

Georgian media reported earlier today that Russian aircraft have already bombed the region around the Georgian city of Gori.

There are also reports coming in from Interfax that the Georgian airbase at Vaziani as well as Georgian positions within South Ossetia have been bomed by Russian warplanes.

Interfax quotes South Ossetian authorities as saying that Russian armored vehicles are approaching Tskhinvali.

Georgian President Michale Saakashvili is currently reported to be in talks with US Foreign Secretary Condoleeza Rice and NATO secretary general Jaap de Hoop Scheffer.

Further reports as the situation develops