Sunday, August 10, 2008

Current Situation as of Sunday Evening

I'm exhausted, I've been averaging 3 hours sleep per night at best and today in particular has left me feeling completely dead. So I'm going to do you a quick update before getting some hard earned sleep in. I've got work tomorrow which will be far more exhausting than a weekend's worrying and writing (more on this later)

What I'm going to do is give a brief roundup of the current state of play, picking out the key points and comparing reports between Western and Russian agencies.

Then I'll do a little talking a about what we're all experiencing here, peppered with a little rumor and gossip from dinner.

Update

Once more I'm writing about a Georgian proposed ceasefire, Georgian Government sources and most international news outlets are reporting on Saakashvili's call for ceasefire to begin at 5am this morning.

Despite this there are still numerous reports of bombings, shellings and even naval battles coming from a wide range of sources.

I'm still not entirely sure (I don't think anyone does) whether or not Georgia is still in South Ossetia at all or not, there are reports that fighting is still continuing despite a supposed Georgian withdrawal.

One the Georgian MFA's (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) blog we have more reports of bombings on airfields outside Tbilisi. There is much contention as to which airfield(s) have been hit.

The MFA make the sensational claim that Tbilisi airport has been hit in addition to the "Tbilaviamsheni" airfield and armaments factory which was hit this morning.

A strike against Tbilisi airport would be a major escalation in the Russian bombing campaign signaling a move from military to civilian targets.

The Russian Ministry of Defence has strenously denied these claims and this time I'm willing to believe them. The expat community as I've said before is tightly knit and highly networked. Such a major development would not have gone unnoticed by any of us.

Though there is always the possibility that for some bizzare reason this slipped us all by I'm willing to put this down as Georgian propaganda till the morning. Interestingly some news agencies are running this story (notice the use of the airport in this report) Don't believe everything you see on TV guys.

Especially if you're watching Russian TV, digging around for information on Winston (more.. or less on Winston later) I was forced to trudge through a lot of RussiaToday video.

This is some of the scariest stuff I've seen in terms of war coverage so far. Whilst in comparison to our santised war coverage it's interesting to see the real impact of combat on innocent civilians (Russian reporting is very graphic) the rhetoric coming out of the Russian side hints at much more trouble to come.

Accusations of genocide and ethnic cleansing against the Georgians fills every line. Whilst claims such as these should not be taken lightly and there has in all likelyhood been some terrible acts committed by the Georgian side, blame for the high number of civilian casualties (a matter of contention in itself) cannot be attributed to the Georgians alone.

Both Russians and Georgians have been heavily shelling Tskinvali, a tactic which cannot be said to safeguard human life. Additionally at this stage without proper investigation claims as extreme as have been coming out of the Russian side (Georgians burning civilians in churches, Georgians throwing hand grenades in packed basement shelters, Georgian use of cluster bombs) should for not for the time being be accepted wholeheartedly.

Personally I worry that all this talk of genocide and ethnic cleansing may be used ala Kosovo to play the Americans at their own game and potentially to justify radical further action, perhaps as some Georgians suggest even up to "Regime Change".

Though of course that could be sleepless, paranoid hypothesising. It's still much too early to start making prediction on that sort of thing.

I mentioned naval warfare earlier, so I'll now try and bring you up to speed on the naughtical issues.

Interfax has been reporting since yesterday that a Russian fleet has been approaching Georgia from bases in the Ukraine across the Black Sea.

Many major news sources are reporting that Russian vessels have now sunk a Georgian missile boat that came out to meet them.

The sinking of the Georgian boat sort of sums up the whole conflict for me.

What was a Georgian boat (it may not surprise you the Georgians are not renowned for their prowess on the high seas) doing going out to meet the Russian Navy? Another desperate, pointless waste of life.

A silver lining in this South Caucasion stormy sea saga (excuse the alliteration, it's late) is that I've heard a number of reports (though I don't have the energy right now to go digging out a link) that the Ukraine, a staunch Georgian ally is none too pleased with the use of its naval facilities against Georgia.

Technically Russia leases its black sea port off the Ukraine (a recent treaty was signed to extend Russian presence there till 2017) Some more interesting rumors suggest that the Ukraine may not allow Russian ships to return to port.

Though this does seem to me somewhat fanciful and again would represent unprecedented escalation. More likely Russia will just get that little bit less popular with its former satellites.

Tbilisi

It's getting late so I'll try and blitz through this bit quickly.

Not wanting to get you all worried but foreigners are leaving Tbilisi. For the most part though they're tourists and families of expat workers. The vast majority of people I know here have opted to stay, especially those who've been here for a while.

For the most part those who are evacuating are leaving to Yervan in Armenia, generally to hang around there till things cool off.

None of the embassies have cleared out, though British Embassy might as well have. My friend went across to check on the situation this morning to find that the embassy on Tabesuplebis Moedani had closed.

Fearing the worst he rang around only to find that due to staff shortages and a touch of paranoia the embassy had been moved to an unknown location.

Apparently a whole load of new staff arrive tomorrow at which point a state of diplomatic normality will resume. I'm not impressed though and will most likely make arrangements with other embassies as a back up if things come to the worst.

Having said that, at the risk of sounding like a stuck record, I'm still confident Tbilisi is very safe. The unconfirmed reports of the airport being bombed are a little worrying but I'll look into that properly tomorrow.

Again there have been huge nationalist demonstrations. The one tonight the largest yet, having spent the day looking at pictures of destroyed buildings, injured civilians and reading nationalist propaganda I had no stomach for it.

Work tomorrow will be interesting to say the least. My organisation was formed as a response to the last war and specialises in dealing with the internally displaced. We have the networks, the resources and the experience to deal with the huge flows of people I'm hearing about evacuating Poti, Zugdidi and Gori.

I'll fill you all in a lot more on the refugee side of things as well as the average Georgian's perspective tomorrow after and during work. I'll probably be blogging less because I'll be working but I'll do my best.

Winston and Temur

Last but not least is the situation with Winston Featherly and Temur Kiguradze (see Winston Update). The only news is, there is no news. Which I suppose is news in itself, I'd have expected it to be all over the press by now but there's not a word on any of the major news sites.

I have been told that the US Embassy has been informed but apparently they're not being too helpful.

Seeing as I'm getting a few more readers at the moment I'd like to encourage all of you with a spare few minutes to have a quick word with the Embassy or a major news source of your choice just to get their case publicised.

Bed

Yes finally, the possibility of crazy morning phone calls aside I can look forward to at least 7 hours sleep.. I can't wait.

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